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Economic Analysis

Common Sense: July 15, 2023

Good morning and welcome to the Saturday, July 15, 2023 Weekender. This Weekender summarizes critical elements from our third-quarter House View. The one more thing segment is about common sense. We expect the US economy and financial markets to remain relatively strong for the next 6 – 9 months with gratitude to: 1. a persistently strong labor market, 2. an increasingly confident consumer, 3. inflation moving in the right direction, 4. interest rates that are higher than historical levels but consistent with growth, and 5. earnings that are bottoming in the second quarter of 2023 and are expected to recover going into next year. Current strength has been paid forward by the effects of monetary and fiscal stimulus applied before the pandemic’s economic impact began. A softer consumer will begin weighing on the economy and financial markets by mid-2024.

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