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Economic Analysis

Impact vs Influence: December 10, 2023

Impact vs Influence
Good morning, and welcome to the Weekender for Saturday, December 9, 2023. Expectations of an imminent recession throughout most of 2023, as telegraphed by most financial market commentators, economists, and strategists, left a lot of capital waiting on the sidelines for most of the year. With a recession nowhere in sight, fear of missing out (FOMO) pushed much of that capital back into the market after interest rates peaked on October 19, 2023, launching one of history’s most spectacular Santa Claus rallies.

Equity markets, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, were flat primarily, higher by 0.2% for the week. While nothing significant, it was enough to bump the index to the highest point of the year. On a year-to-date basis, the index is higher by 19.9%. Very significant.

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